Nikkei Asia reported October 2, 2026. Versus the prior year, the share fell from 52 to 49 percent, according to Electrek. Pure gasoline cars made up 73 percent of global sales in 2021. Gasoline vehicle sales dropped 10 percent year-over-year to 20.25 million units.
Middle East tensions raise fuel prices
Nikkei linked the acceleration to oil prices. Middle East conflict raised fuel costs, pushing buyers toward lower operating expenses. The International Energy Agency said in July 2026 EV sales surged in the second quarter after a sluggish start, as Middle East crisis reduced crude supply and raised prices. Global EV sales jumped 35 percent versus Q1, the agency reported.
What the 49 percent threshold conceals
The threshold counts only gasoline-only vehicles, according to Electrek. Conventional hybrids, which Electrek classifies as gasoline cars using less fuel, were counted separately and sold 7.27 million units in H1 2026, more than battery-electric cars at 6.87 million. Only battery-electric vehicles, with a 17 percent market share, burn no fuel, meaning roughly 83 percent of global new cars still had internal combustion engines. Regional declines varied sharply: China led with 26 percent drops, followed by Europe at 13 percent. Yoshiaki Kawano, associate director at Mobility Global, told Nikkei few EV buyers return to gas or hybrids; he expects rising demand from genuine consumer interest as prices fall, not subsidies.
China crossed the threshold years ago
China surpassed the 50 percent combined hybrid and EV threshold years earlier, with roughly 55 percent combined share. In August 2026, gasoline and diesel vehicle sales in China fell 40 percent while battery-electric sales inched up. In the EU, combined gasoline and diesel share at new registrations fell to 29 percent through August 2026 from 37.5 percent the prior year, according to ACEA data. Battery-electric cars reached 21.7 percent from 15.8 percent the same period. In the US, battery-electric share fell from 7.4 percent in Q2 2025 to 5.8 percent in Q2 2026 using Cox Automotive figures cited by Electrek. The hybrid share simultaneously hit a record 16.3 percent. Benzinga reported that President Donald Trump's administration has eliminated federal EV tax credits since 2025 and rolled back emissions standards.
Whether gasoline vehicles remain below 50 percent for the full year remains uncertain, Electrek notes, since the data cover only half a year amid an oil shock. Wood Mackenzie analysts quoted by OilPrice.com expect the high-fuel-price trend to persist, lifting EV share beyond earlier forecasts. Yet barriers remain: billion-dollar investments in battery mineral supplies and charging networks. Ford reported an 80 percent EV sales drop in Q3.