China's CO₂ emissions fell in 2025 for the first time not because the economy collapsed like during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2022, but because renewable energy is structurally displacing fossil fuel power plants. Analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) shows a decline of 0.3 percent. In the power sector, which accounts for more than half of all Chinese emissions, emissions actually fell by 1.5 percent. It is the first decline of its kind: driven by solar and wind, not by closures or demand collapse.
Capacity becomes reality
For years, energy analysts have tracked China's renewable energy boom primarily by one metric: installed capacity. By the end of 2025, China had installed 1,840 gigawatts of wind and solar capacity, according to its national energy authority. For comparison: China's entire thermal power plant capacity—coal, gas, and oil combined—totals 1,539 gigawatts. It's the first time in history that any country has operated more wind and solar capacity than its entire fossil fuel power generation infrastructure.
This milestone answers a question analysts long left open: when does growing capacity stop being a number on paper and start actually reducing emissions? Lauri Myllyvirta of CREA, who analyzes Chinese energy data for Carbon Brief, calls the decline a structural turning point triggered by clean energy, not economic weakness.
The numbers behind the decline
In 2025, China installed approximately 434 gigawatts of new wind and solar capacity: roughly 315 gigawatts of photovoltaics and 119 gigawatts of wind power. Total renewable energy capacity rose to 2,340 gigawatts, representing more than 60 percent of the country's total installed power generation capacity, according to official figures.
Electricity generation from renewable sources reached approximately four trillion kilowatt-hours in 2025, exceeding the entire electricity consumption of the 27 EU states combined. This growth displaced coal power to a degree sufficient, for the first time, to push down sector emissions. The 1.5 percent decline in the power sector may sound modest, but it's historically significant: it means China's power plants fed more clean electricity into the grid in 2025 than growth in electricity demand required.
In perspective: What this decline means globally
China accounts for roughly 30 percent of the world's CO₂ emissions. For comparison: the United Kingdom has cut its emissions by about 50 percent since 1990 and is widely regarded as exemplary for a large industrialized nation. China has now achieved this level of decline in an economy four times larger and consuming three times as much electricity.
What distinguishes this turning point from previous declines: China's emissions fell briefly in 2009 due to the financial crisis and again in 2022 due to COVID-19 lockdowns. The 2025 decline is the first driven by capacity expansion. The International Energy Agency has documented in several reports that new solar and wind capacity in most markets is now cheaper than operating existing coal plants. In China, these price signals are increasingly becoming reality.
The counternarrative: China approves record coal plants in parallel
The headline has a darker flip side. According to Carbon Brief and Global Energy Monitor, China brought approximately 78 gigawatts of new coal power plants online in 2025, the highest figure in a decade. Approval applications for another 161 gigawatts have been filed.
This seems paradoxical: declining emissions and simultaneous record coal capacity expansion. The explanation lies in China's energy policy: regions in northern China that have historically relied on coal power are building new capacity even as wind and solar already suffice nationally. Additionally, the chemical sector produced 12 percent more emissions in 2025 than the previous year, driven by higher coal and oil consumption in basic materials industries. The power sector's decline is thus partially offset by emissions growth elsewhere.
The 2026 rebound: Three conditions for lasting decline
The 2025 turning point already faces renewed pressure. According to Carbon Brief data, China's CO₂ emissions rose approximately two percent in early 2026. The cause is technical: curtailment. Wind and solar plants generate electricity in northern and northwestern China that existing high-voltage networks cannot transmit to densely populated coastal regions. Newly installed facilities operate below capacity while coal power plants fill the gap. Despite 47 percent installed renewable capacity, wind and solar generate only approximately 22 percent of actual electricity produced.
China's emissions will only decline sustainably when three conditions are met simultaneously: grid expansion to industrial centers, slowed construction of new coal plants, and improved efficiency in the chemical and heavy industry sectors. All three are underway, but not fast enough to fully offset electricity demand growth through renewable energy. The 2025 decline demonstrates what is possible. That it's already facing pressure in 2026 reveals what remains incomplete.